Global macro research & investment strategy.
Cross-asset macroeconomic and investment research on the dominant economic, policy and global markets themes shaping the investment landcape.
Articles
Posts about markets, macro and investment recommendations
Deep dives
Posts about markets, macro and investment recommendations
Portfolio
Posts about markets, macro and investment recommendations
Latest articles
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Our take on Bitcoin and portfolio positioning
We start by reviewing the historical trajectory of the American federal government debt and its impact on the government’s finances in a world of elevated…
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The dot-com era vs. the AI era
We start by reviewing the historical trajectory of the American federal government debt and its impact on the government’s finances in a world of elevated…
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A review of global monterary policies and where they are heading
We start by reviewing the historical trajectory of the American federal government debt and its impact on the government’s finances in a world of elevated…
Deep dive series
Sovereign debts
Understanding the evolution of sovereign debts over history, how it looks now, and how it might look in the future.
Research philosophy
Unearthing enduring investment opportunities through the rigorous analysis of historical patterns, data, and probabilities.
Historical pattern recognition
We delve deep into long-term historical economic and market data to identify recurring cycles, trends, and anomalies. This foundational step allows us to understand the enduring dynamics that shape global macro environments, providing crucial context often overlooked in short-term analyses.
Data-driven insights & quantitative rigor
Our approach is fundamentally data-centric. We employ advanced data analysis techniques and statistical methodologies to extract meaningful insights from vast datasets. This commitment to quantitative rigor ensures our conclusions are grounded in evidence, minimizing subjective biases and enhancing predictive power.
Probabilistic framework for decision-making
Recognizing the inherent uncertainty in financial markets, we embrace a probabilistic framework. Instead of seeking definitive forecasts, we focus on assessing the likelihood of various outcomes based on our analytical findings. This allows for a more robust and adaptable investment strategy that accounts for a range of potential scenarios.
Long-Term Perspective & Risk Mitigation:
Our research is oriented towards identifying durable themes and investment opportunities that can withstand short-term volatility. By focusing on long-term patterns and robust statistical analysis, we aim to uncover mispriced assets and structural shifts, thereby mitigating risk and positioning portfolios for sustainable growth.
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